The Unofficial DaveWeigel.com Oscar thread, brought to you by Moviefone.com

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BEST PICTURE
Will win: Avatar, because it’s the biggest-grossing film of all time — did you suckers realize that receipts were up 10% last year? During a motherfucking recession? #teaparty
Should win: The Hurt Locker, although I would fully support a win for A Serious Man

BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Kathryn Bigelow. I just have a theory, which will be shredded or validated in due course, that the judges will split the baby here. Maybe it’ll go in the other direction — surely, Cameron’s achievement is more impressive than Bigelow’s, even if his movie is worse.
Should win: James Cameron. You see? You see?

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE
Will win: Up.
Should win: Coraline. Yeah, I fucking said it.

BEST ACTOR
Will win: Jeff Bridges.
Should win: Jeremy Renner.

BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Sandra Bullock.
Should win: God, I don’t even care. The girl from Precious?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Christophe Walz.
Should win: Walz, even though he’ll give the most boring speech of the night.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Mo’nique
Should win: Mo’nique

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Should win: Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Should win: Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche, In the Loop

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Will win: The White Ribbon
Should win: Uh, sure! The White Ribbon!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: James Horner, Avatar
Should win: Alexandre Desplat, The Fantastic Mr. Fox

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Will win: “The Weary Kind” by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett. The songs from The Princess and the Frog cancel each other out; the song from Nine, being a song from Nine, totally sucks.
Should win: “The Weary Kind” by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett