Oscar time

If I don’t hurry, I can’t be embarassingly off base! And while I don’t think any of the nominated films was as good as Pan’s Labyrinth or Children of Men, I did greater diligence this year than ever before, seeing all five of the nominated live-action shorts. Little-known fact: The shorts are not very good. “Binta and the Great Idea” is thinly-veiled Unicef propaganda; “West Bank Story” is a slapstick student film, “Eramos Pocos” and “Helmer & Son” are beautifully shot one-joke goofs that would fail as SNL sketches. Only “The Saviour,” about a Mormon missionary having an affair with a woman he’s failing to convert (OMIGOD RELIGIOUS BIGOTRY OOOO) seemed “Oscar worthy.” But Little Miss Sunshine isn’t Oscar worthy, either.

I think Tim will basically be proven right at the end of the night, but here’re my guesses.

Picture: The Departed (Should win.)
Director: Martin Scorcese (Should win.)
Actor: Forest Whitaker (Should win.)
Actress: Helen Mirren (Should win.)
Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin (Should win: Eddie Murphy, who will instead win an Arkin-style pity award for a weaker performance in 2032.)
Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson (Should win.)
Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine (Should win: The Queen)
Adapted Screenplay: The Departed (Should win.)
Foreign Film: Pan’s Labyrinth (Should win.)
Animated Feature: Happy Feet (No opinion.)
Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth (Should win; it’ll be funny.)
Cinematography: Pan’s Labyrinth (Should win.)
Editing: Babel (Should win: The amazing Children of Men.)
Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth (Should win.)
Costume Design: Dreamgirls (Probably should win.)
Original Score: The Queen. (No opinion.)
Original Song: “I Need to Wake Up” by Melissa Ethridge. (“Patience” from Dreamgirls should win, but AL GORE!!!!)
Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls. (Sure.)
Sound Effects Editing: Letters from Iowa Jima. (Sure, ok.)
Makeup: Pan’s Labyrinth (Should win.)
Visual Effects: Pirates of the Carribean. (Ehhh.)
Animated Short Film: The Little Matchgirl. (??)
Live Action Short Film: Eramos Pocos (Should win: The Saviour.)
Short Documentary: Two Hands (Total, total guess.)

If I’m right, note the takeaway story: A foreign film (nominated in that category) wins the most overall Oscars of the night for the first time ever.