Why Dean will win
Well, not entirely. I think Dean will place a close second (within 5 points) in the New Hampshire primary, for two reasons.
1.) Kerry’s ground team is headed up by Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor who nearly lost the state for Gore and lost her own Senate campaign in 2002.
2.) The Iowa caucus results are stupidly reported – Kerry won 38 percent of the precincts, but not 38 percent of the voters. We don’t know how many voters he swayed.
I expect Kerry to take about 30 percent of the New Hampshire vote, and Dean about 26 percent. Edwards and Kerry will take most of the rest, and Kucinich will do better than expected (maybe 4 percent). Lieberman will get under 10 percent, but will prove too stubborn to quit.

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